Weigh-ins are over...nothing much happened to change my mind. Everyone looks to be in the kind of shape you'd expect, except for Sylvia.
Best card for betting purposes to come along in quite some time. Here you go...
Prelim
Prangley vs. Stout
Prangley has the advantage from every angle. Prangley wins; juice too high to bother with.
Pass.
Prelim
St. Pierre vs. Hieron
Hieron a juistifiable 'dog due to being a late replacement - he was in the right place at the right time. Some buzz on him, but he wouldn't be here if not for certain circumstances. Very likely to be outclassed.
Pass.
Prelim
Menjivar vs. Serra
Serra is the vet in the UFC and opened a solid favorite, but Menjivar has the goods. Bet down from +130 to basically a PK now. Providing he doesn't have any first-time jitters, he should be all over Serra for a decision win. Better wrestling and better stand-up. Serra has never lived up to expectations and for all his Gracie-taught skills, never finishes anyone decent. Menjivar could be the next star in this class.
Menjivar
Main Card
Baroni/Tanner
Tanner still +110 and above at some outs. A good, not great, play. Rematch of their late '03 fight that saw Baroni nearly decapitate Tanner, but the ref stepped in to examine a cut. When the fight was restarted, Baroni was already gassed; Evan took him down and ended it. (Baroni thought the ref stopped it prematurely: he actually hit the official lightly and got suspended for the infraction.)
This time, Tanner should avoid the stand-up altogether and go immediately for the takedown. He has and would own Baroni from the mount. Vicious, vicious elbows will take away anyone's fight. Baroni is 0-3 vs. Team Quest members. Always a gamble to bet against Baroni's hammers, but Evan should win. Too many tools. Even so, Baroni has dropped some of the cosmetic muscles and may be getting his act together. I'd stay away.
Gun to Head: Tanner
Hughes/Verissimo
NEVER thought I'd see Hughes at -150 ever again, but Penn changed all that. Hughes defended the welterweight title with exceptional wrestling for over two years - until Penn moved up from lightweight and submitted him. Rumor mill now says Hughes had so much trouble making weight for that fight that he was passing out.
Verissimo just beat Carlos Newton and happens to be Penn's jiu-jitsu teacher. Hughes should return to form here by dominating position and landing strikes for the decision win. Only hold-up is Charuto's lanky frame giving Hughes a tough guard to work in. Cheapest price you'll ever see on one of the most dangerous fighters in the world.
Hughes
Sylvia/Mir
Everyone and their mother is on Sylvia, and that's the way it should be...he has great takedown defense and insane striking, which means a long, long night for Mir, who relies on submission to get his wins. Mir has piss-poor cardio and stand-up.
But...whenever something looks so lop-sided on paper, that usually means something weird will happen. Sylvia should win and reclaim his heavyweight title (he was busted for juice), and I should be having dinner with Beyonce. Sometimes life screws you. Sylvia showed up at the weigh-ins looking dumpy. This isn't a bodybuilding contest, but...not worth the chalk. If anything, take a small shot with Mir.
Pass.
Trigg/Hallman
Trigg's only UFC fight was a submission loss to Matt Hughes last year - he has a solid reputation as a standout wrestler and has looked good in his career. Problem is, for all his bluster, he's never really beaten anyone of note. I think his reputation precedes him.
Hallman, on the other hand, beat Hughes twice via submission and has 50+ fights on his record. These two fought in 2002 and it was even on the feet until Trigg accidentally kicked Hallman the groin, forcing a default win for Trigg. I think Trigg comes out hard and Hallman catches him in something fast. Guy is like a steel trap. One of my favorite plays on the card.
Hallman
Kimo/Ken Shamrock
Gee, let's hope Medicare will cover any injuries to come out of this fight.
Ken remains one of the UFC's biggest stars and talks a great game, but the cold hard fact is, he has not had a good win since 1996. He is 2-3 in his comeback and those two wins were against corpses. He's been mixing up his training but at age 40, there's only so much you can expect.
Bad news for Kimo is, he's also 40 and that last good win of Ken's was at his expense. But Kimo has improved considerably since then and doesn't have nearly the same amount of battle damage as Shamrock. Vegas seems to like Shammy while the offshore sharps are keeping Kimo's number ticking. I see him using his 25+ lb. weight advantage and improved striking to frustrate Ken on the feet and in the guard.
Kimo
Totals
Only total that looks good is Hallman/Trigg UN 2 for +100. Someone is going out early in that one. Hallman is recuperating from a staph infection and he may need to end it quick if he wants to win. Likewise, Trigg has never gone to a decision and stays aggressive. Be surprised if this one went ten whole minutes. Hallman may be physically unable to do it, and if he gets even the least bit winded, Trigg will be all over him.
I'd stay away from finishing props. You have to remember that these guys are freestyle fighters, and they can do it all. Everyone thought Nick Diaz would have to submit Robbie Lawler to get a win - dude winds up knocking him out cold. Everyone thought Lee Murray was going to put his fist through Jorge Rivera's head - he subbed him. Don't make life harder on yourself by trying to figure out how they'll do it. There are just too many variables.
To wrap up...
Menjivar -110
Hallman -110
Hallman/Trigg UN 2 +100
Kimo -115
Oh, and Pride: Critical Countdown takes place a few hours following the UFC in Japan. I'd hit...
Jackson -170
Kharitonov -125
Good luck.
Best card for betting purposes to come along in quite some time. Here you go...
Prelim
Prangley vs. Stout
Prangley has the advantage from every angle. Prangley wins; juice too high to bother with.
Pass.
Prelim
St. Pierre vs. Hieron
Hieron a juistifiable 'dog due to being a late replacement - he was in the right place at the right time. Some buzz on him, but he wouldn't be here if not for certain circumstances. Very likely to be outclassed.
Pass.
Prelim
Menjivar vs. Serra
Serra is the vet in the UFC and opened a solid favorite, but Menjivar has the goods. Bet down from +130 to basically a PK now. Providing he doesn't have any first-time jitters, he should be all over Serra for a decision win. Better wrestling and better stand-up. Serra has never lived up to expectations and for all his Gracie-taught skills, never finishes anyone decent. Menjivar could be the next star in this class.
Menjivar
Main Card
Baroni/Tanner
Tanner still +110 and above at some outs. A good, not great, play. Rematch of their late '03 fight that saw Baroni nearly decapitate Tanner, but the ref stepped in to examine a cut. When the fight was restarted, Baroni was already gassed; Evan took him down and ended it. (Baroni thought the ref stopped it prematurely: he actually hit the official lightly and got suspended for the infraction.)
This time, Tanner should avoid the stand-up altogether and go immediately for the takedown. He has and would own Baroni from the mount. Vicious, vicious elbows will take away anyone's fight. Baroni is 0-3 vs. Team Quest members. Always a gamble to bet against Baroni's hammers, but Evan should win. Too many tools. Even so, Baroni has dropped some of the cosmetic muscles and may be getting his act together. I'd stay away.
Gun to Head: Tanner
Hughes/Verissimo
NEVER thought I'd see Hughes at -150 ever again, but Penn changed all that. Hughes defended the welterweight title with exceptional wrestling for over two years - until Penn moved up from lightweight and submitted him. Rumor mill now says Hughes had so much trouble making weight for that fight that he was passing out.
Verissimo just beat Carlos Newton and happens to be Penn's jiu-jitsu teacher. Hughes should return to form here by dominating position and landing strikes for the decision win. Only hold-up is Charuto's lanky frame giving Hughes a tough guard to work in. Cheapest price you'll ever see on one of the most dangerous fighters in the world.
Hughes
Sylvia/Mir
Everyone and their mother is on Sylvia, and that's the way it should be...he has great takedown defense and insane striking, which means a long, long night for Mir, who relies on submission to get his wins. Mir has piss-poor cardio and stand-up.
But...whenever something looks so lop-sided on paper, that usually means something weird will happen. Sylvia should win and reclaim his heavyweight title (he was busted for juice), and I should be having dinner with Beyonce. Sometimes life screws you. Sylvia showed up at the weigh-ins looking dumpy. This isn't a bodybuilding contest, but...not worth the chalk. If anything, take a small shot with Mir.
Pass.
Trigg/Hallman
Trigg's only UFC fight was a submission loss to Matt Hughes last year - he has a solid reputation as a standout wrestler and has looked good in his career. Problem is, for all his bluster, he's never really beaten anyone of note. I think his reputation precedes him.
Hallman, on the other hand, beat Hughes twice via submission and has 50+ fights on his record. These two fought in 2002 and it was even on the feet until Trigg accidentally kicked Hallman the groin, forcing a default win for Trigg. I think Trigg comes out hard and Hallman catches him in something fast. Guy is like a steel trap. One of my favorite plays on the card.
Hallman
Kimo/Ken Shamrock
Gee, let's hope Medicare will cover any injuries to come out of this fight.
Ken remains one of the UFC's biggest stars and talks a great game, but the cold hard fact is, he has not had a good win since 1996. He is 2-3 in his comeback and those two wins were against corpses. He's been mixing up his training but at age 40, there's only so much you can expect.
Bad news for Kimo is, he's also 40 and that last good win of Ken's was at his expense. But Kimo has improved considerably since then and doesn't have nearly the same amount of battle damage as Shamrock. Vegas seems to like Shammy while the offshore sharps are keeping Kimo's number ticking. I see him using his 25+ lb. weight advantage and improved striking to frustrate Ken on the feet and in the guard.
Kimo
Totals
Only total that looks good is Hallman/Trigg UN 2 for +100. Someone is going out early in that one. Hallman is recuperating from a staph infection and he may need to end it quick if he wants to win. Likewise, Trigg has never gone to a decision and stays aggressive. Be surprised if this one went ten whole minutes. Hallman may be physically unable to do it, and if he gets even the least bit winded, Trigg will be all over him.
I'd stay away from finishing props. You have to remember that these guys are freestyle fighters, and they can do it all. Everyone thought Nick Diaz would have to submit Robbie Lawler to get a win - dude winds up knocking him out cold. Everyone thought Lee Murray was going to put his fist through Jorge Rivera's head - he subbed him. Don't make life harder on yourself by trying to figure out how they'll do it. There are just too many variables.
To wrap up...
Menjivar -110
Hallman -110
Hallman/Trigg UN 2 +100
Kimo -115
Oh, and Pride: Critical Countdown takes place a few hours following the UFC in Japan. I'd hit...
Jackson -170
Kharitonov -125
Good luck.
royler...you are the second guy i know that follows mma that really likes hallman over trigg..i understand this is a rematch from a prior controversial bout which trigg won..i`ll ride along....
the shamrock thing has me stumped....the guy is 40....the loss to ortiz....a blowout...showed that shamrock has obviously seen better days.....particularly after seeing ortiz exposed in his last 2 bouts....the size difference....i see your rationale...
i just never liked kimo...i don`t believe he`s now some monster submission guy....
i took a small play on shamrock as a dog...i`ll probably off it and take kimo now that he`s the dog....and keep the change...
i like hughes....verrissimo looked great against newton....i just have to like hughes as a reasonable favorite coming off a loss...
i`ll try hallman(the guy has 2 wins over hughes...that`s impressive)....hughes....and a small plays on baroni and menjivar(i`ll ride with you on menjivar and hallman)....
disclaimer....follow royler...not me...royler knows this stuff...i don`t....
g.l.,bud....and thanks for the breakdown...
the shamrock thing has me stumped....the guy is 40....the loss to ortiz....a blowout...showed that shamrock has obviously seen better days.....particularly after seeing ortiz exposed in his last 2 bouts....the size difference....i see your rationale...
i just never liked kimo...i don`t believe he`s now some monster submission guy....
i took a small play on shamrock as a dog...i`ll probably off it and take kimo now that he`s the dog....and keep the change...
i like hughes....verrissimo looked great against newton....i just have to like hughes as a reasonable favorite coming off a loss...
i`ll try hallman(the guy has 2 wins over hughes...that`s impressive)....hughes....and a small plays on baroni and menjivar(i`ll ride with you on menjivar and hallman)....
disclaimer....follow royler...not me...royler knows this stuff...i don`t....
g.l.,bud....and thanks for the breakdown...
Spinch,
Sharps have definitely cooled on Kimo over the past couple of days. I see him at +115 at Pinny now.
I suppose it's one of those "lesser of two evils" plays, like taking the '04 Expos over the '03 Tigers.
I'm just not willing to put my money behind Shamrock. Eight years is a long time to go without a notable win. Yes, Ken's knee is better; yes, he's been training more intelligently, but...Ken's rep comes mainly from having a good physique in the old days and from his WWE stint. His actual career has been underwhelming.
Kimo, some may recall, actually knocked Bob Sapp down in a K-1 fight last August. His cardio could be a real problem here, though. He looked dead in the Sapp fight after half of a round.
I think the lean on Kimo is due to the weight advantage (26 lbs.), and the fact that Kimo really has gotten quite a bit better since '96. Not the strongest play on the card - I'd go with Menjivar and the Hallman Under as the best leans.
If you can middle the fight, man, you're golden.
Sharps have definitely cooled on Kimo over the past couple of days. I see him at +115 at Pinny now.
I suppose it's one of those "lesser of two evils" plays, like taking the '04 Expos over the '03 Tigers.
I'm just not willing to put my money behind Shamrock. Eight years is a long time to go without a notable win. Yes, Ken's knee is better; yes, he's been training more intelligently, but...Ken's rep comes mainly from having a good physique in the old days and from his WWE stint. His actual career has been underwhelming.
Kimo, some may recall, actually knocked Bob Sapp down in a K-1 fight last August. His cardio could be a real problem here, though. He looked dead in the Sapp fight after half of a round.
I think the lean on Kimo is due to the weight advantage (26 lbs.), and the fact that Kimo really has gotten quite a bit better since '96. Not the strongest play on the card - I'd go with Menjivar and the Hallman Under as the best leans.
If you can middle the fight, man, you're golden.
Max,
Yeah, I heard he made a good showing for himself. Too bad the books won't grade on effort.
I got greedy- thought I could snipe with Ivan early and then roll it over on my other plays. Trigg/Hallman would've wound up being really big for me, along with Pride a few hours later.
Won't make that mistake again. I hate when my lessons cost me four figures.
Yeah, I heard he made a good showing for himself. Too bad the books won't grade on effort.
I got greedy- thought I could snipe with Ivan early and then roll it over on my other plays. Trigg/Hallman would've wound up being really big for me, along with Pride a few hours later.
Won't make that mistake again. I hate when my lessons cost me four figures.
